The NBA Has No North Star
Ratings Are Declining & Everyone’s Complaining - What Can the NBA Do?
If you haven’t heard, the NBA is in a rough patch. Ratings are down, fans are unhappy, and the league has lost its proper place in the cultural zeitgeist (always wanted to use that word).
So what’s the issue, and what can the NBA do to fix it?
Let’s examine the culprits, in reverse order.
Too Many Threes
I struggle with this one. On one hand, the three pointer is one of the most exciting parts of the sport, a proverbial dagger that can blow the top off the arena or bring a team back from a large deficit in a blink. Think about it - what’s more exciting in the last decade of the NBA than this:
Or this?
When Steph and the Warriors revolutionized the game with the three, they pushed the sport forward into its current era. Now, teams are shooting 40 3’s per game on average vs. 24 a decade ago.
As a result, the three has lost its novelty. Even more so, over reliance on three pointers has led to homogeneous play styles that make the product less dynamic. This isn’t the main culprit, as it’s 3rd on my list, but I think pushing the 3-point line back is worth exploring to break up the monotony.
Too Many Games
This one is irrefutable - an 82-game season is complete overkill. The stakes aren’t high on a night-to-night basis and the schedule is too much for a professional athlete’s body to handle, particularly if they’re saving their best for a two-month playoff run. Unfortunately, with the dollars at stake, this isn’t going to change.
No North Star
The NBA’s biggest issue is the lack of a North Star. What do I mean by a North Star? Well, the history of the league has been defined by distinct eras, dominated either by certain players, teams or rivalries:
1950’s/1960’s - The Bill Russell Celtics Dynasty, including the Celtics/Sixers and Celtics/Lakers rivalries
1970’s - Kareem, Dr. J and the merger. It’s notable that this was one of the league’s toughest eras, with no notable dynasty
1980’s - Magic and Bird
1990’s - The MJ Bulls
Early 2000’s - Shaq & Kobe/Duncan’s Spurs
Late 2000’s - Kobe, LeBron and Rebirth of Celtics/Lakers
Early 2010’s - The Heatles
Mid to Late 2010’s - LeBron and the Curry Warriors
Looking at the history of the league, what two trends stand out? To me, it’s the presence of either: 1) A dynastic team; 2) A superstar American player; or 3) Both.
The NBA needs dynasties and/or native superstars. Today, it has neither.
The new CBA has made it increasingly difficult to keep a team together long enough to win multiple championships in a tight window, which is why there’s been seven different champions in the last seven years. In terms of American superstars, the top players are at best top-5 players in the league but carry nowhere near the gravitas and impact that an MJ, Shaq or LeBron did. Currently, the league’s three best players are:
A doughy Serbian who seems completely uninterested
A Greek guy playing in one of the league’s smallest markets; and
A Slovenian point forward.
All three are incredible players in their own right, but American fans need an American superstar. Currently, none of the best Americans pass the sniff test. Tatum is great, but is inconsistent and lacks personality. Curry, Durant & LeBron are all well past their primes. Anthony Edwards fits the bill with his insane dunks and movie star personality, but I’m not convinced he’ll be the best player on a championship team.
So who will be the NBA’s next North Star? I don’t know. Someone or something will come along eventually, it always does. As much as fans say they like parity, the league is more compelling when everyone is taking aim at the same target. The most likely candidates are a Spurs three-peat toward the end of the decade, or Cooper Flagg, who would broaden the NBA’s cultural reach beyond its typical demographic if he turns out to be an MVP level player. When we see it, we’ll know. Until then, let’s push the three-point line back and lighten the schedule.